Lionheart rising?

The battle between Anthony smith and Jimmy Crute had something of the Francis Ngannou about it. Smith looked great early but we haven’t really learnt a much about im from this, the fight just didn’t last long enough. 

With that said, his jab was dynamite, he set Crute back on one occasion and was causing serious damage to the right eye of the Australian. The accuracy was excellent and he was able to maintain real length, on what was a fairly minimal reach advantage. It was helped by Crute coming in and angling off to the left in order to dig at the leg kick which he was landing effectively. It left him open however, to Smith catching Crute coming in as well as being able to keep him at range. The exception that proves the rule was after he delivered the leg kick which clearly stuck a nerve in the back of Crute’s knee. Smith clearly didn’t expect it to have the level of effect it did and he left himself in the in between range that enabled Crute to launch a strong and low panicked double leg and get Smith to the floor. 

However there is little to say overall about this fight, both men had moments and it opened as a great deal of fights do with a battle between the jab and the low kick. But the low kick landed nearly as often as the jab, ultimately it was a shame that we didn’t get to see this unfold past the first round. 

Saturday prediction: Anthony Smith by Unanimous decision 

Result: TKO R1 Doctor’s Stoppage 

Poetic pain 

Boy am I glad I wrote a long form article about this fight. 

This was sad. No other description is really appropriate. The leg break came on the first strike thrown and that was all she wrote. Silva’s leg break obviously comes to mind not least because Weidman was involved in both. Ultimately this is one of the curses of combat sports: freak injuries happen and its very unfortunate that it had to be Chris on the bad end of it. 

Prediction: Chris Weidman by Unanimous decision 

Result: TKO R1 Injury 

Good god women’s flyweight is bad

…Or maybe Shevchenko is just transcendent?

No its definitely the first thing. All the talk in the build-up was about power and wrestling ability being in Andrade’s favour. She looked lost against Shevchenko, and not just in the way she started slow and couldn’t keep up, in the clinch she looked weak and technically lacking. She couldn’t consistently base herself in the clinch which as the shorter fighter is essential to controlling the clinch. 

Credit where credit’s due Shevchenko clearly saw a either prior to the fight, or felt it in the fight that Andrade was lacking in the clinch. She used her height advantage well and worked her throws off the cage. Some interesting shifts in the clinch including a feinted throw over the back leg to an inside trip stood out for Shevchenko, but ultimately when you can put your opponent in the crucifix without any resistance you’re not fighting someone on your level.

Where does she go from here? Well there’s an obligatory match with Amanda Nunes that doesn’t feel necessary so much as being a result of both of their divisions being cleaned out. So let’s throw them in their again and hopefully get a vaguely competitive fight out of it. 

Prediction: Shevchenko by Unanimous Decision  R5

Result: Shevchenko by TKO R2

Thug Rose, Thug Rose, Thug Rose 

Feeling like a broken record as I write this, we didn’t learn much about either side in this fight. However that was emphatic, it opened much like the light-heavyweight bout on the card low kicks against jabs. What followed was emphatic, the high kick was gorgeous off the lead leg. It was a closer to a question mark kick, extending the leg once it was already in the guard. She set it up well with a hip feint and a retreat and was able to rapidly close the distance with a step up lead leg kick. It did look like at least the concept of feinting with a step in attack with the lead side was in the game plan, which would align with the Trevor Wittman coaching, particularly with Gaejthe and his lead left hook. Again there’s only so much on the table here and a rematch seems as likely as a fight with Joanna does so the intrigue really starts now.

Prediction: Zhang Weili by KO R2

Result: Rose Namajunas KO/TKO R1

Trevor ‘the maestro’ Wittman 

Well if you watched just the last two fights on this card it would be hard to understand why anyone trains with anyone other than Trevor Wittman. Usman looked strong as he always does in the wrestling exchanges and avoided taking risks in the first round. Interestingly he did look a little slow in some of the trading moments in the pocket and Masvidal’s head movement did give him some serious headaches at moments.

Jorge was carrying his head high in the fight trying primarily to keep distance, unfortunately you chose your poison on that front and Usman got the body jab working early. His dip into the body jab was very pronounced and was clearly setting up the overhand/cross. With the threat of the takedown already established by virtue of him being Kamaru Usman it left Jorge in a serious bind. Either take the shots to the body all night and lose a slow and painful decision, or keep the hands down and risk the right hand. He picked his poison and ultimately Kamaru Usman found the chin. 

For Usman now it is important that he doesn’t fall in love with his hands, especially against the looming Covington who will take more risks on the feet with his wrestling credentials and won’t need to necessarily commit as much defensively. In between podcast segments Cormier made the very salient point that Covington would always be Usman’s toughest test and its had to argue with that and hopefully a rapid turnaround for Usman will give us that fight before the end of the year.

Prediction: Kamaru Usman by KO R3

Result: Kamaru Usman by KO R2

I’ll admit, I’m very biased here. I fell in love with MMA watching Chris Weidman land a flurry of punches on the seemingly invincible Anderson Silva. Since then he had the 2^nd most dominant middleweight championship run in UFC history. The fact that his run gets forgotten so often is a testament to his position after the loss to Rockhold. He was lost in the shuffle of the antics of Bisping, GSP and two stunning Romero Whittaker wars. After a short sojourn up to light heavy to fuel the Reyes hype train, Weidman finds himself in a strange spot. A razor thin win over Akhmedov puts him in place to fight Uriah Hall, a man as uninspiring as Kamaru Usman, without being a top 5 pound for pound fighter. 

Weidman is in a must win position, probably not to keep his job but definitely to have a chance of making a run at the title. Fundamentally he can reach those heights again, his grinding style is tailor made for many of the top ten, indeed Vettori is very reminiscent of a young Weidman and he has found great success in the grinding brawler style built on check hooks and heavy hands. It’s this style that saw him break Akhmedov down and indeed has won him the most significant fights of his career. It’s essentially a meme now that Weidman loves wheel kicks after it cost him the title against Rockhold, but attached to the joke is a serious point. Flashiness is costly, especially when Weidman is so dominant as a slower more methodical fighter. He proved against Akhmedov that he’s aware of this and he will need to remain aware this coming weekend. 

Talking of fighters in a weird spot Uriah Hall is on a three fight win streak, yet also seems to be flirting with being cut from the UFC. His most recent bout against a man pretending to be Anderson Silva was one of the more phoned-in match ups in UFC history. The lack of enthusiasm was not without reason, the fight itself was simply a stronger, faster and younger man, throwing simple strong techniques against a fighter who should have retired some 10 years ago. The 3 fight win streak rather than inspiring confidence in Hall instead makes me question the matchmaking. Hall has excellent power and legitimate speed in the striking realms, especially the longer ranges where he can launch head kicks as well as the rush attacks he favours, particularly the flying knee. 

All this leads to the first two entries in the MMA phrasebook: ‘styles make fights’ and ‘a classic striker/wrestler match up’. This fight is those two phrases taken to their extreme. Weidman is a methodical wrestler who will exchange at close range and will utilise short hooks and dirty boxing to open up takedown opportunities. Uriah hall wants to circle the cage and keep Weidman at the end of his leg reach, rather than just regular jabbing range. It’s an old school battle of ranges and despite many seeing it as a bit of a nothing fight the way it plays out could be a technical masterclass. 

For Weidman then it’s about control, and pace. Hall is a slow starter and rather than approaching the fight like Bevon Lewis did throwing everything at him in the first round and hoping to make an early night of it, Weidman needs to be methodical. His approach should be wrestling centric, he needs to take advantage of the slow start of hall to bx in on him work him to the fence. Hall is fairly passive as a fighter and loves spinning techniques. Weidman needs to take advantage of the low early output from hall and get him on the ground early, and keep him there. The Blachowicz, Adesanya fight showed the value that taking and holding down a striker can have especially on the judges’ scorecards which in a three round fight will be a factor. Weidman needs to use top control to drain Hall and take the venom out of his explosive shots, he will be safe in that top position not least because the guard has become less and less dangerous in MMA. Even more so is the fact that the current meta has moved rapidly toward standing up, fuelled in part by the power of the wall walk which as a technique is so effective it leads grappling exchanges taking place almost exclusively on the fence. This is significant not least because Weidman is one of the few men, especially in the middleweight division who is exceptional at keeping the wrestling exchanges in the centre of the cage. The Askren style of control and ground and pound will be the biggest element of Weidman’s game if he is to come away with the win. If Weidman is able to angle Hall away from the fence with some low outside singles, or alternatively or potentially force a sprawl from an old school low between the leg doubles, he might well be able to make it count in terms of draining Hall. 

Range for Weidman is also important, whilst Hall is by no means a weak boxer he favours long open ranges for kicking. Weidman can’t afford to spend much time at long range, his strikes need to come in the pocket and the clinch. If there is a finish for Weidman it will come from dirty boxing or close range hooks as Hall retreats. If he can hang in the pocket he will be able to make Uriah very uncomfortable. However the buzzword for Weidman needs to be patience, not looking for a finish early, rather using the slow start of Hall to really take the energy out of him which will pay particular dividends in those longer ranges Uriah prefers. 

For Hall, one word should be the only thing he has heard all camp ‘volume’. Hall needs to let his hands go early and often, there’s a reason that the big strikes he ended people with on the Ultimate fighter don’t work against higher competition. Its Hall’s failure to set u these larger strikes that cost him. These techniques work, just ask Terry Etim, but fighters like Barbosa and ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson set up their spinning attacks. Thompson’s hands low style draws in opponents and gets them moving forward which he then attacks with spinning counters. Barbosa throws out a volume of leg a body kicks forcing the lowering of his opponents hands. Uriah Hall needs to throw punches, he needs work behind his jab to force Weidman to hesitate in the area between the pocket and disengaged. The teep kick should be a significant weapon for Hall to keep Weidman at a range where he will be forced to explode to launch any combinations or a shot. For Hall this fight is about keeping Chris right on the end of his jab constantly and force Chris to do more to close the gap on him.

If he’s able to establish distance with the teep and the jab he can then start to work his power kicks, particularly those to the body with the height and looseness that Weidman holds his hand with. If hall is to win he will most likely do it by finish in the last round. 

So which style wins? Weidman does seem to be quietly building momentum, and it really is a major turning point in his career, it could well define his future in the sport as well as the promotion. Ultimately Weidman should be able to establish and push a pace on Hall, it’s a familiar task for a man who has throughout his career given his best performances against long range strikers. 

Weidman by unanimous decision

Blue collar Cleveland fireman vs superhuman refugee turned title challenger for the title of baddest man on the planet. The Ngannou Miocic rematch really writes its own headlines. Aside from the surreal nature of the backstory to the fight, the matchup itself is very compelling. Ngannou opens as favourite which has rubbed some people up the wrong way, but it’s hard to argue with it, after fighting derrick Lewis in a cagey decision loss, Ngannou has spent 2 minutes and 42 seconds in the Octagon… Over 4 fights. 

Teddy Atlas talks about Deontay wilder having ‘the great eraser’ in his right hand, which is so powerful that it erases all his mistakes up to the point it lands Leading to the 48 KOs on his record. Ngannou is this idea taken to its maximum potential in the UFC, and MMA more generally. His win over Rozenstruik in just 20 seconds compared with the 25 minute decision fought by fellow highly touted prospect Cyril Gane to also beat Rozenstruik is testament to the alien otherness of the power in Ngannou’s hands. 

The last time Stipe took on the Cameroonian he withstood the hurricane of the first two minutes and comfortably controlled the fight from then until the bell at the end of the fifth. Dominant does not do justice to Stipe’s performance in 2018, and it’s here that this fight becomes so interesting. It’s easy to fall in love with Ngannou’s power, just watch him hit Overeem into orbit, but Stipe has proven that he can nullify that power, and not just nullify it but take it on the chin and tough it out. Ngannou landed an uppercut in the first and a right hook in the third that landed clean and the working man of Ohio shrugged it off with his trademark stony exterior. 

There is obviously technical nuances as there are in any fight at the top level, however this weekend’s title bout boils down to one fundamental question: can Ngannou connect clean? If the answer is yes it will be a short night and Stipe will wake up looking up at the lights of the UFC Apex centre. If the answer is no Stipe will have to effect another herculean effort likely even greater than his performance the last time these two met.

How does stipe do it then? Well, pretty much the same way he did it last time, the single leg will be key this weekend. Ngannou will come in lighter than he did in the last fight, hopefully closer to 250lbs than 260lbs. There will however, still be great profits for Stipe in keeping Ngannou on one leg for extended periods of time, not only because of the draining effect it will have on the big man, but it will keep Stipe out of the arc of doom that exists in the striking range. Additionally seeing Miocic use the fence more would restrict Ngannou’s wrestling escape options and it worked extremely well when Stipe went to it in the later rounds in 2018. Where Miocic could really benefit from building upon the last fight would be a greater investment in body strikes early on. So much of the first fight saw Stipe secure a takedown only to follow it up with very little ground work, this led to the muted feel of the first fight where it seemed unlikely that either man would get hurt in any significant way. Investing in the body, especially now we’ve seen how effective his boxing technique is when going to the body in the later rounds of the second and third Cormier fights, could really pay dividends. If he is able to drain Ngannou to the point where it is moderately safe to engage in the stand up, especially in the later rounds Miocic will benefit if Ngannou’s body is already hurting and will open a great deal of striking opportunities in the championship rounds. I’ve no doubt that the referee will be aware of the lack of activity in the first fight, and if it begins to descend into another grinding performance by Miocic you can guarantee there will be constant calls for more work form the official. Miocic will have to work extremely hard to show himself working with this in mind and the body investment is a wonderful way to kill two birds with a series of flurries to the body. 

For Ngannou the buzzwords should be maturity and patience. Ngannou’s performances recently have been short lived affairs and it is hard as a result to see them as patient performances. Ngannou has though shown a composure in his more recent fights that hints at his growth as a fighter. His quickest KO of his 2^nd title run against Rozenstruik exemplifies this, he comes out slowly and eats two hard leg kicks and doesn’t return. The first time he throws with malice the fight is over, two weak connections proceed a flush left hand and goodnight. The rushing punches worked because Ngannou read Rozenstruik closing the distance and launched into wild swings that Ngannou knew would connect due to Rozenstruik’s mismanagement of the range. In comparison in the first 20 seconds of the Miocic fight he throws a high kick from completely out of range, then follows with a naked left hook also from out of range, and from there it was a downward spiral accelerated by a clear lack of cardio. Patience then is key, Ngannou only needs one shot, and he should throw them with that in mind, not wasting energy will be key, and if he is able to properly cut the octagon and funnel Stipe into a corner only then should he be unloading. 

This is one of those that makes you look and imbecile if you get it wrong. If you bet on Ngannou you’re betting against not just a man whose beaten him before but also the greatest heavyweight of all time. If you back Miocic you’re betting against the most dangerous puncher in the history of the sport. I’m going to buy into the hype train against my better judgement, I’m not sure if Stipe will be able to pull the rabbit out of the hat for another 25 minutes against Ngannou and avoid the great eraser. 

Prediction: Ngannou, Round 1, KO/TKO 

S.