Blue collar Cleveland fireman vs superhuman refugee turned title challenger for the title of baddest man on the planet. The Ngannou Miocic rematch really writes its own headlines. Aside from the surreal nature of the backstory to the fight, the matchup itself is very compelling. Ngannou opens as favourite which has rubbed some people up the wrong way, but it’s hard to argue with it, after fighting derrick Lewis in a cagey decision loss, Ngannou has spent 2 minutes and 42 seconds in the Octagon… Over 4 fights. 

Teddy Atlas talks about Deontay wilder having ‘the great eraser’ in his right hand, which is so powerful that it erases all his mistakes up to the point it lands Leading to the 48 KOs on his record. Ngannou is this idea taken to its maximum potential in the UFC, and MMA more generally. His win over Rozenstruik in just 20 seconds compared with the 25 minute decision fought by fellow highly touted prospect Cyril Gane to also beat Rozenstruik is testament to the alien otherness of the power in Ngannou’s hands. 

The last time Stipe took on the Cameroonian he withstood the hurricane of the first two minutes and comfortably controlled the fight from then until the bell at the end of the fifth. Dominant does not do justice to Stipe’s performance in 2018, and it’s here that this fight becomes so interesting. It’s easy to fall in love with Ngannou’s power, just watch him hit Overeem into orbit, but Stipe has proven that he can nullify that power, and not just nullify it but take it on the chin and tough it out. Ngannou landed an uppercut in the first and a right hook in the third that landed clean and the working man of Ohio shrugged it off with his trademark stony exterior. 

There is obviously technical nuances as there are in any fight at the top level, however this weekend’s title bout boils down to one fundamental question: can Ngannou connect clean? If the answer is yes it will be a short night and Stipe will wake up looking up at the lights of the UFC Apex centre. If the answer is no Stipe will have to effect another herculean effort likely even greater than his performance the last time these two met.

How does stipe do it then? Well, pretty much the same way he did it last time, the single leg will be key this weekend. Ngannou will come in lighter than he did in the last fight, hopefully closer to 250lbs than 260lbs. There will however, still be great profits for Stipe in keeping Ngannou on one leg for extended periods of time, not only because of the draining effect it will have on the big man, but it will keep Stipe out of the arc of doom that exists in the striking range. Additionally seeing Miocic use the fence more would restrict Ngannou’s wrestling escape options and it worked extremely well when Stipe went to it in the later rounds in 2018. Where Miocic could really benefit from building upon the last fight would be a greater investment in body strikes early on. So much of the first fight saw Stipe secure a takedown only to follow it up with very little ground work, this led to the muted feel of the first fight where it seemed unlikely that either man would get hurt in any significant way. Investing in the body, especially now we’ve seen how effective his boxing technique is when going to the body in the later rounds of the second and third Cormier fights, could really pay dividends. If he is able to drain Ngannou to the point where it is moderately safe to engage in the stand up, especially in the later rounds Miocic will benefit if Ngannou’s body is already hurting and will open a great deal of striking opportunities in the championship rounds. I’ve no doubt that the referee will be aware of the lack of activity in the first fight, and if it begins to descend into another grinding performance by Miocic you can guarantee there will be constant calls for more work form the official. Miocic will have to work extremely hard to show himself working with this in mind and the body investment is a wonderful way to kill two birds with a series of flurries to the body. 

For Ngannou the buzzwords should be maturity and patience. Ngannou’s performances recently have been short lived affairs and it is hard as a result to see them as patient performances. Ngannou has though shown a composure in his more recent fights that hints at his growth as a fighter. His quickest KO of his 2^nd title run against Rozenstruik exemplifies this, he comes out slowly and eats two hard leg kicks and doesn’t return. The first time he throws with malice the fight is over, two weak connections proceed a flush left hand and goodnight. The rushing punches worked because Ngannou read Rozenstruik closing the distance and launched into wild swings that Ngannou knew would connect due to Rozenstruik’s mismanagement of the range. In comparison in the first 20 seconds of the Miocic fight he throws a high kick from completely out of range, then follows with a naked left hook also from out of range, and from there it was a downward spiral accelerated by a clear lack of cardio. Patience then is key, Ngannou only needs one shot, and he should throw them with that in mind, not wasting energy will be key, and if he is able to properly cut the octagon and funnel Stipe into a corner only then should he be unloading. 

This is one of those that makes you look and imbecile if you get it wrong. If you bet on Ngannou you’re betting against not just a man whose beaten him before but also the greatest heavyweight of all time. If you back Miocic you’re betting against the most dangerous puncher in the history of the sport. I’m going to buy into the hype train against my better judgement, I’m not sure if Stipe will be able to pull the rabbit out of the hat for another 25 minutes against Ngannou and avoid the great eraser. 

Prediction: Ngannou, Round 1, KO/TKO 

S.